Monday, June 25, 2012

Individual mandate unlikely to be struck down

In the waning hours before release of the opinion, I am compelled to make my prediction regarding the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare.

I believe the individual mandate will not be struck down.

Specifically, one or more of the following, on stare decisis grounds or on the grounds that it is a political question, will rule that the government with a rational basis may compel the purchase of a product pursuant to the commerce clause: Scalia, Roberts, or Kennedy.

I believe the states themselves will be considered to not have standing to challenge the individual mandate, and this will likely be a 6-3 or 7-2 decision.

I believe that the states' challenge on Medicaid grounds will be defeated unanimously.

I believe one or more of the following will rule against the challengers to the individual mandate due to either a lack of ripeness, failure to comply with the anti tax injunction act, or complete lack of standing: Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Breyer, Kagan, or Kennedy.

If all of the above happens, then the individual mandate will not be struck down, but will not be deemed constitutional.  The fight will be left for another day.

I hope I am incorrect...